Table 3 Climate drivers and levels of predictability for WHO-TDR study regions + provides an indication of the strength of the relationship
From: Climate drivers of vector-borne diseases in Africa and their relevance to control programmes
Region | ENSO impact | ENSO predictability | Decadal Impact | Decadal predictability | Long term change | Climate Change predictions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Eastern Africa | +++ for rainfall for OND. +++ for temperature in tropics for extended period following ENSO onset. Tanzania - rainfall impact focused on northern and western regions Kenya - with temperature signal particular important in extensive highland areas. | +++ for rainfall OND in conjunction with Indian Ocean Dipole. +++ for temperature in tropics for extended period following ENSO onset. Tanzania - with rainfall forecast skill focused on regions where OND rainfall occurs. Kenya - with temperature prediction particular important in extensive highland areas. | +++ for rainfall for MAM. +++ for temperature. | Rainfall not predictable in operational context. + Temperature predictable from long term change if decadal signal is weak. | +++ for temperature warming. + Rainfall scenarios indicate wet. | +++ for temperatures warming. + for rainfall getting wetter. |
Western Africa (including Sahel) (Valid for Mauretania and Ivory Coast) | ++ for rainfall for JAS in Sahel. +++ for temperature in tropics for extended period following ENSO onset. | ++ for rainfall for JAS in Sahel. +++ for temperature following ENSO onset. | +++ rainfall JAS. +++ temperature. | Rainfall not predictable in operational context. + Temperature not predictable in operational but long term change signal may be visible at shorter timescales if not masked by decadal signal. | +++ for temperature warming. Rainfall scenarios indicate both wet and dry. | +++ for temperatures warming. Rainfall highly uncertainty. |
Southern Africa (Valid for Botswana and Zimbabwe) | +++ for rainfall in DJF. +++ for temperature in tropics for extended period following ENSO onset. | +++ for rainfall in NDJ. +++ for temperature in tropics for extended period following ENSO onset. | ++ for rainfall season. +++ for temperature in tropics. | Rainfall not predictable in operational context. + Temperature long term change signal may be visible at shorter timescales if not masked by decadal signal. | +++ for temperature warming. ++ Rainfall observations indicate dry. | +++ for temperatures getting warming. ++ for rainfall drying. |